Krónan - jú en hún er norsk

Gjaldeyriskaupmenn eru farnir að veðja á krónuna - þ.e.  þá norsku. Sterkur hagvöxtur og sú staðreynd að norska krónan hefur staðist álag á undanförnum mánuðum hefur gert það að verkum að gjaldeyriskaupmenn er byrjaðir að kaupa krónur.

Að sumu leyti minnir þetta okkur á íslensku krónuna og stöðu hennar en á undanförnum mánuðum hefur enginn gjaldmiðill í Evrópu hækkað meira gagnvart dollar og evru en sú íslenska. Það hins vegar gefur tilefni til að íslenskir fjárfestar fari að huga að myntkörfunni.

The International Herald Tribune fjallar um frænd-krónuna og segir: 

NEW YORK: The Norwegian krone may become the next favorite for investors seeking high-yielding currencies as the central bank in Oslo increases interest rates to quash inflation.

"I like the Norwegian krone," Paul Barrett, the chief foreign exchange trader at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, said in New York. "People are hunting for yields, and the rising interest rates make it attractive."

Norges Bank, the central bank, said March 15 that it might raise its benchmark deposit rate as high as 5.25 percent next year. It has already increased borrowing costs nine times since June 30, 2005, to stand now at 4 percent.

Barrett said the benchmark rate could go as high as 6 percent.

Rising rates have helped turn the krone into the third-strongest performer against the dollar this year, behind the Brazilian real and the Australian dollar. Higher rates attract carry-trade investors, who borrow in low-interest-rate currencies like the yen to put into currencies that yield more.

Japan's overnight lending target rate is 0.5 percent, the lowest among the world's major economies.

"Sentiment is favorable for the Norwegian krone," said John Taylor, chairman of FX Concepts in New York. "The currency should strengthen, as the central bank is raising rates faster, relative to other central banks."

The dollar was little changed last week at 6.099 kroner, while the euro fell 0.2 percent against the Norwegian currency to 8.128 kroner. The Norwegian currency is likely to gain 3.9 percent against the euro and 3.8 percent against the dollar by year-end, according to the median estimate of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

"The krone is mainly traded by a handful of local banks and receives very little attention from the outside world," said David Karsboel, a strategist in Copenhagen at Saxo Bank. "That may change once interest rates start to go up." Karsboel said he estimated the krone to be about 10 percent undervalued against the euro, in part because of a lack of trades.

A report by Goldman Sachs in February said the currency might be as much as 30 percent undervalued in euro terms.

Another report, from J.P. Morgan Chase this month, said the dollar could drop to 5.66 kroner, its lowest level since September 1992, by the end of the year, while the euro could drop to 7.70 kroner in the same period, its lowest level since March 2003.

BNP Paribas, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, Royal Bank of Scotland Group and UBS have all recommended that investors buy the krone against the dollar, euro, Swedish krona or other major currencies.

A long-running economic expansion has helped to push Norway's unemployment rate to an 18-year low of 2.7 percent, about a third of the average in the euro zone and the second-lowest, after Iceland, among the 30 members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

"Everyone is trying to get more people," said Petter Elvestad, managing director in Oslo at PEAB, a construction company. The shortage of workers causes projects to be delayed, and rival companies try to lure away skilled labor, he said.

Norway, a major oil exporter, limits spending from crude revenue to avoid inflationary money supply growth and in the process has amassed a $292 billion trust fund. Even so, the central bank is forecasting that inflation will exceed its two-year inflation target of 2.5 percent.

Retail sales in Norway rose 6 percent from a year earlier in January, compared with a 0.1 percent decline in the euro zone, and many currency analysts say the bank is likely to need to take stronger action to curb demand.

"The Norwegian central bank underestimates how fast the economy is growing and will have to accelerate rate hikes beyond what they have planned today," said Arne Lohman Rasmussen, a strategist at Danske Bank in Copenhagen. "The Norwegian krone is one of our favorites this year."

Rasmussen said he expected wages to rise 5.5 percent this year, after a 4.3 percent gain last year, pushing benchmark borrowing costs to 5.5 percent in 2008.

Business executives are concerned that higher borrowing costs and a stronger currency will take their toll on non-oil exports.

"When we are in disharmony with interest rates abroad, it can overly strengthen the krone and hurt the economy," said Tor Steig, chief economist in Oslo at the Confederation of Norwegian Enterprise. "Not a single German tourist will come if the krone goes to 7.3 against the euro."

Already, rising living costs have made Oslo the most expensive city in the world, surpassing Tokyo last year, data from The Economist Group show.